Assessment of Lung Cancer Risk Among Smokers for Whom Annual Screening Is Not Recommended.

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force does not recommend annual lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for adults aged 50 to 80 years who are former smokers with 20 or more pack-years of smoking who quit 15 or more years ago or current smokers with less than 20 pack-years of smoking. Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer in older smokers for whom LDCT screening is not recommended. Design, Settings, and Participants: This cohort study used the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) data sets obtained from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, which also sponsored the study. The CHS enrolled 5888 community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years and older in the US from June 1989 to June 1993 and collected extensive baseline data on smoking history. The current analysis was restricted to 4279 individuals free of cancer who had baseline data on pack-year smoking history and duration of smoking cessation. The current analysis was conducted from January 7, 2022, to May 25, 2022. Exposures: Current and prior tobacco use. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident lung cancer during a median (IQR) of 13.3 (7.9-18.8) years of follow-up (range, 0 to 22.6) through December 31, 2011. A Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to estimate incidence of lung cancer in the presence of competing risk of death. Cox cause-specific hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident lung cancer. Results: There were 4279 CHS participants (mean [SD] age, 72.8 [5.6] years; 2450 [57.3%] women; 663 [15.5%] African American, 3585 [83.8%] White, and 31 [0.7%] of other race or ethnicity) included in the current analysis. Among the 861 nonheavy smokers (<20 pack-years), the median (IQR) pack-year smoking history was 7.6 (3.3-13.5) pack-years for the 615 former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation, 10.0 (5.3-14.9) pack-years for the 146 former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation, and 11.4 (7.3-14.4) pack-years for the 100 current smokers. Among the 1445 heavy smokers (20 or more pack-years), the median (IQR) pack-year smoking history was 34.8 (26.3-48.0) pack-years for the 516 former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation, 48.0 (35.0-70.0) pack-years for the 497 former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation, and 48.8 (31.6-57.0) pack-years for the 432 current smokers. Incident lung cancer occurred in 10 of 1973 never smokers (0.5%), 5 of 100 current smokers with less than 20 pack-years of smoking (5.0%), and 26 of 516 former smokers with 20 or more pack-years of smoking with 15 or more years of smoking cessation (5.0%). Compared with never smokers, cause-specific HRs for incident lung cancer in the 2 groups for whom LDCT is not recommended were 10.54 (95% CI, 3.60-30.83) for the current nonheavy smokers and 11.19 (95% CI, 5.40-23.21) for the former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation; age, sex, and race-adjusted HRs were 10.06 (95% CI, 3.41-29.70) for the current nonheavy smokers and 10.22 (4.86-21.50) for the former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation compared with never smokers. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that there is a high risk of lung cancer among smokers for whom LDCT screening is not recommended, suggesting that prediction models are needed to identify high-risk subsets of these smokers for screening.

Systolic Blood Pressure and Outcomes in Older Patients with HFpEF and Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: New hypertension and heart failure guidelines recommend that systolic blood pressure (SBP) in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and hypertension be lowered to <130 mm Hg. METHODS: Of the 6778 hospitalized patients with HFpEF and a history of hypertension in the Medicare-linked OPTIMIZE-HF registry, 3111 had a discharge SBP <130 mm Hg. Using propensity scores for SBP <130 mm Hg, we assembled a matched cohort of 1979 pairs with SBP <130 versus ≥130 mm Hg, balanced on 66 baseline characteristics (mean age, 79 years; 69% women; 12% African American). We then assembled a second matched cohort of 1326 pairs with SBP <120 versus ≥130 mm Hg. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes associated with SBP <130 and <120 mm Hg were separately estimated in the matched cohorts using SBP ≥130 mm Hg as the reference. RESULTS: HRs (95% CIs) for 30-day, 12-month, and 6-year all-cause mortality associated with SBP <130 mm Hg were 1.20 (0.91-1.59; P = 0.200), 1.11 (0.99-1.26; P = 0.080), and 1.05 (0.98-1.14; P = 0.186), respectively. Respective HRs (95% CIs) associated with SBP <120 mm Hg were 1.68 (1.21-2.34; P = 0.002), 1.28 (1.11-1.48; P = 0.001), and 1.11 (1.02-1.22; P = 0.022). There was no association with readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Among older patients with HFpEF and hypertension, compared with SBP ≥130 mm Hg, the new target SBP <130 mm Hg had no association with outcomes but SBP <120 mm Hg was associated with a higher risk of death but not of readmission. Future prospective studies need to evaluate optimal SBP treatment goals in these patients.